Data-Driven Estimation of Groundwater Level Time-Series at Unmonitored Sites Using Comparative Regional Analysis

A new method is presented to efficiently estimate daily groundwater level time series at unmonitored sites by linking groundwater dynamics to local hydrogeological system controls. The proposed approach is based on the concept of comparative regional analysis, an approach widely used in surface water hydrology, but uncommon in hydrogeology. Using physiographic and climatic site descriptors, the method utilizes regression analysis to estimate cumulative frequency distributions of groundwater levels (groundwater head duration curves, HDC) at unmonitored locations. The HDC is then used to construct a groundwater hydrograph using time series from distance-weighted neighboring monitored (donor) locations. For estimating times series at unmonitored sites, in essence, spatio-temporal interpolation, stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and nearest neighbors are compared. The methods were applied to 10-year daily groundwater level time series at 157 sites in unconfined alluvial aquifers in Southern Germany. Models of HDCs were physically plausible and showed that physiographic and climatic controls on groundwater level fluctuations are nonlinear and dynamic, varying in significance from “wet” to “dry” aquifer conditions. XGB yielded a significantly higher predictive skill than nearest neighbor and MLR. However, donor site selection is of key importance. The study presents a novel approach for regionalization and infilling of groundwater level time series that also aids conceptual understanding of controls on groundwater dynamics, both central tasks for water resources managers

Systematic visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs: potential benefits and challenges

Visual analysis of time series in hydrology is frequently seen as a crucial step to becoming acquainted with the nature of the data, as well as detecting unexpected errors, biases, etc. Human eyes, in particular those of a trained expert, are well suited to recognize irregularities and distinct patterns. However, there are limits as to what the eye can resolve and process; moreover, visual analysis is by definition subjective and has low reproducibility. Visual inspection is frequently mentioned in publications, but rarely described in detail, even though it may have significantly affected decisions made in the process of performing the underlying study. This paper presents a visual analysis of groundwater hydrographs that has been performed in relation to attempts to classify groundwater time series as part of developing a new concept for prediction in data-scarce groundwater systems. Within this concept, determining the similarity of groundwater hydrographs is essential. As standard approaches for similarity analysis of groundwater hydrographs do not yet exist, different approaches were developed and tested. This provided the opportunity to carry out a comparison between visual analysis and formal, automated classification approaches. The presented visual classification was carried out on two sets of time series from central Europe and Fennoscandia. It is explained why and where visual classification can be beneficial but also where the limitations and challenges associated with the approach lie. It is concluded that systematic visual analysis of time series in hydrology, despite its subjectivity and low reproducibility, should receive much more attention

Physiographic and climatic controls on regional groundwater dynamics

The main goal of this study is to explore whether the ideas established by surface water hydrologists in the context of “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) can be useful in hydrogeology. The concrete question is whether it is possible to create predictive models for groundwater systems with no or few observations based on knowledge derived from similar groundwater systems which are well‐observed. To do so, this study analyses the relationship between temporal dynamics of groundwater levels and climatic and physiographic characteristics. The analysis is based on data from 341 wells in Southern Germany with ten‐year daily groundwater hydrographs. Observation wells are used in confined and unconfined sand and gravel aquifers from narrow mountainous valleys as well as more extensive lowland alluvial aquifers. Groundwater dynamics at each location are summarized with 46 indices describing features of groundwater hydrographs. Besides borehole log‐derived geologic information, local and regional morphologic characteristics as well as topography‐derived boundary and climatic descriptors were derived for each well. Regression relationships were established by mining the data for associations between dynamics and descriptors with forward stepwise regression at a confidence level >95%. The most important predictors are geology and boundary conditions and secondarily, climate, as well as some topographic features, such as regional convergence. The multiple regression models are in general agreement with process understanding linked to groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers. This systematic investigation suggests that statistical regionalization of groundwater dynamics in ungauged aquifers based on map‐derived physiographic and climatic controls may be feasible

Similarity-based approaches in hydrogeology: proposal of a new concept for data-scarce groundwater resource characterization and prediction

A new concept is proposed for describing, analysing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of groundwater resources based on classification and similarity. The concept makes use of the ideas put forward by the “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) initiative in surface-water hydrology. One of the approaches developed in PUB uses the principle that similar catchments, exposed to similar weather conditions, will generate a similar discharge response at the catchment outlet. This way, models developed for well-observed catchments can be used to make predictions for ungauged catchments with similar properties (topography, land use, etc.). The concept proposed here applies the same idea to groundwater systems, with the goal to make predictions of the dynamic behaviour of groundwater in poorly observed systems using similarities to well-observed and understood systems. This paper gives an overview of the main ideas, the methodological background, the progress so far, and the challenges that the authors regard as most crucial for further development. One of the main goals of this article is thus to raise interest for this new concept within the groundwater community. There are a multitude of highly interesting aspects to investigate, and a community effort, as with PUB, is required. A second goal is to foster and exchange ideas between the groundwater and surface water research communities who, while often working on similar problems, have often missed the opportunity to learn from each other

Changes in seasonality of groundwater level fluctuations in a temperate-cold climate transition zone

In\ua0cold (i.e. boreal, subarctic, snowy)\ua0climate\ua0zones, dynamic\ua0groundwater\ua0storage is greatly affected by the timing and amount of snowmelt. With global warming, cold climates\ua0in\ua0the northern hemisphere will\ua0transition\ua0to temperate. As temperatures rise, the dominant type of precipitation will\ua0change\ua0from snow to rain\ua0in\ua0winter. Further, the growing season is prolonged. This has\ua0a\ua0direct impact on the aquifer recharge pattern. However, little is known about the effect of changing annual recharge regimes on\ua0groundwater\ua0storage. The present work deduces the impact of shifting\ua0climate\ua0zones on\ua0groundwater\ua0storage by evaluating the effect of\ua0climate\ua0seasonality\ua0on intra-annual hydraulic head\ua0fluctuations. The work compares intra-annual hydraulic head\ua0fluctuations\ua0in\ua0a\ua0temperate-cold\ua0climate\ua0transition\ua0zone\ua0(Fennoscandia) from two different periods (1980–1989, 2001–2010). This is done by associating rising vs. declining hydraulic heads with hydrometeorology. Due to the northwards migration of the temperate\ua0climate\ua0zone, there is\ua0a\ua0shift\ua0in\ua0seasonality\ua0between the two periods. This has\ua0a\ua0negative impact on\ua0groundwater\ua0levels, which are significantly lower\ua0in\ua02001–2010, particularly near the\ua0climate\ua0transition\ua0zone. The results demonstrate that increasing temperatures\ua0in\ua0cold\ua0climate\ua0regions may\ua0change\ua0the\ua0seasonality\ua0of\ua0groundwater\ua0recharge, by altering the main recharge period from being snowmelt-dominated (spring) to rain-dominated (winter). Additionally, this is connected to the duration of the growing season, which impedes\ua0groundwater\ua0recharge. The coupled effect of this on\ua0groundwater\ua0in\ua0the study area has led to\ua0a\ua0significant decrease\ua0in\ua0groundwater\ua0storage

Nerve growth factor and receptor expression in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthritis

Introduction We previously described the presence of nerve growth factor receptors in the inflamed synovial compartment. Here we investigated the presence of the corresponding nerve growth factors, with special focus on nerve growth factor (NGF). Methods mRNA expression levels of four ligands (NGF, brain derived growth factor (BDNF), neurotrophin (NT)-3, NT-4) and their four corresponding receptors (tyrosine kinase (trk) A, trkB, trkC, NGFRp75) were determined in the synovial fluid (SF) cells of 9 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and 16 with spondyloarthritis (SpA) and compared with 7 osteoarthritis (OA) patients. NGF was also determined in synovial tissue (ST) biopsies of 10 RA and 10 SpA patients. The production of NGF by monocytes and lymphocytes was assessed by flow cytometry of SF cells, synovial tissue derived fibroblast-like synoviocytes (FLS) were assessed by ELISA on culture supernatant. Results SF cell analysis revealed a clear BDNF and NGF mRNA expression, with significantly higher NGF expression in RA and SpA patients than in the OA group. NGF expression was higher in ST samples of RA as compared to SpA. Using intracellular FACS analysis, we could demonstrate the presence of the NGF protein in the two inflammatory arthritis groups on both CD3+ T lymphocytes and CD14+ cells, i.e. monocytes/macrophages, whereas cultured FLS did not produce NGF in vitro. Conclusions Neurotrophins and especially NGF are expressed in the synovial fluid and tissue of patients with peripheral synovitis. The presence of neurotrophins as well as their receptors, in particular the NGF/trkA-p75 axis in peripheral synovitis warrants further functional investigation of their active involvement in chronic inflammatory arthriti

A kinematic study of the compact jet in quasar B3 1633+382

We present a study of the motion of compact jet components in quasar B3 1633+382. Through analyzing 14 epochs of VLBI observations of three components (B1, B2, and B3) at 22 GHz, we find two different possibilities of component classification. Thus two corresponding kinematical models can be adopted to explain the evolutionary track of components. One is a linear motion, while another is a helical model. Future observations are needed to provide new kinematical constraints for the motion of these components in this source.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures; Accepted for publication in A&

Seasonality, drivers, and isotopic composition of soil CO2 fluxes from tropical forests of the Congo Basin

Soil respiration is an important carbon flux and key process determining the net ecosystem production of terrestrial ecosystems. To address the lack of quantification and understanding of seasonality in soil respiration of tropical forests in the Congo Basin, soil CO2 fluxes and potential controlling factors were measured annually in two dominant forest types (lowland and montane) of the Congo Basin over 2 years at varying temporal resolution. Soil CO2 fluxes from the Congo Basin resulted in 3.45 +/- 1.14 and 3.13 +/- 1.22 mu mol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) for lowland and montane forests, respectively. Soil CO2 fluxes in montane forest soils showed a clear seasonality with decreasing flux rates during the dry season. Montane forest soil CO2 fluxes were positively correlated with soil moisture, while CO2 fluxes in the lowland forest were not. Smaller differences of delta C-1(3) values of leaf litter, soil organic carbon (SOC), and soil CO2 indicated that SOC in lowland forests is more decomposed than in montane forests, suggesting that respiration is controlled by C availability rather than environmental factors. In general, C in montane forests was more enriched in C-13 throughout the whole cascade of carbon intake via photosynthesis, litterfall, SOC, and soil CO2 compared to lowland forests, pointing to a more open system. Even though soil CO2 fluxes are similarly high in lowland and montane forests of the Congo Basin, the drivers of them seem to be different, i.e., soil moisture for montane forest and C availability for lowland forest

Marine organic matter in the remote environment of the Cape Verde islands-an introduction and overview to the MarParCloud campaign

The project MarParCloud (Marine biological production, organic aerosol Particles and marine Clouds: a process chain) aims to improve our understanding of the genesis, modification and impact of marine organic matter (OM) from its biological production, to its export to marine aerosol particles and, finally, to its ability to act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A field campaign at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) in the tropics in September-October 2017 formed the core of this project that was jointly performed with the project MARSU (MARine atmospheric Science Unravelled). A suite of chemical, physical, biological and meteorological techniques was applied, and comprehensive measurements of bulk water, the sea surface microlayer (SML), cloud water and ambient aerosol particles collected at a ground-based and a mountain station took place. Key variables comprised the chemical characterization of the atmospherically relevant OM components in the ocean and the atmosphere as well as measurements of INPs and CCN. Moreover, bacterial cell counts, mercury species and trace gases were analyzed. To interpret the results, the measurements were accompanied by various auxiliary parameters such as air mass back-trajectory analysis, vertical atmospheric profile analysis, cloud observations and pigment measurements in seawater. Additional modeling studies supported the experimental analysis. During the campaign, the CVAO exhibited marine air masses with low and partly moderate dust influences. The marine boundary layer was well mixed as indicated by an almost uniform particle number size distribution within the boundary layer. Lipid biomarkers were present in the aerosol particles in typical concentrations of marine background conditions. Accumulation-and coarse-mode particles served as CCN and were efficiently transferred to the cloud water. The ascent of ocean-derived compounds, such as sea salt and sugar-like compounds, to the cloud level, as derived from chemical analysis and atmospheric transfer modeling results, denotes an influence of marine emissions on cloud formation. Organic nitrogen compounds (free amino acids) were enriched by several orders of magnitude in submicron aerosol particles and in cloud water compared to seawater. However, INP measurements also indicated a significant contribution of other non-marine sources to the local INP concentration, as (biologically active) INPs were mainly present in supermicron aerosol particles that are not suggested to undergo strong enrichment during ocean-atmosphere transfer. In addition, the number of CCN at the supersaturation of 0.30 % was about 2.5 times higher during dust periods compared to marine periods. Lipids, sugar-like compounds, UV-absorbing (UV: ultraviolet) humic-like substances and low-molecularweight neutral components were important organic compounds in the seawater, and highly surface-active lipids were enriched within the SML. The selective enrichment of specific organic compounds in the SML needs to be studied in further detail and implemented in an OM source function for emission modeling to better understand transfer patterns, the mechanisms of marine OM transformation in the atmosphere and the role of additional sources. In summary, when looking at particulate mass, we see oceanic compounds transferred to the atmospheric aerosol and to the cloud level, while from a perspective of particle number concentrations, sea spray aerosol (i.e., primary marine aerosol) contributions to both CCN and INPs are rather limited. © Author(s) 2020

Marine organic matter in the remote environment of the Cape Verde islands – an introduction and overview to the MarParCloud campaign

The project MarParCloud (Marine biological production, organic aerosol Particles and marine Clouds: a process chain) aims to improve our understanding of the genesis, modification and impact of marine organic matter (OM) from its biological production, to its export to marine aerosol particles and, finally, to its ability to act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A field campaign at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) in the tropics in September–October 2017 formed the core of this project that was jointly performed with the project MARSU (MARine atmospheric Science Unravelled). A suite of chemical, physical, biological and meteorological techniques was applied, and comprehensive measurements of bulk water, the sea surface microlayer (SML), cloud water and ambient aerosol particles collected at a ground-based and a mountain station took place. Key variables comprised the chemical characterization of the atmospherically relevant OM components in the ocean and the atmosphere as well as measurements of INPs and CCN. Moreover, bacterial cell counts, mercury species and trace gases were analyzed. To interpret the results, the measurements were accompanied by various auxiliary parameters such as air mass back-trajectory analysis, vertical atmospheric profile analysis, cloud observations and pigment measurements in seawater. Additional modeling studies supported the experimental analysis. During the campaign, the CVAO exhibited marine air masses with low and partly moderate dust influences. The marine boundary layer was well mixed as indicated by an almost uniform particle number size distribution within the boundary layer. Lipid biomarkers were present in the aerosol particles in typical concentrations of marine background conditions. Accumulation- and coarse-mode particles served as CCN and were efficiently transferred to the cloud water. The ascent of ocean-derived compounds, such as sea salt and sugar-like compounds, to the cloud level, as derived from chemical analysis and atmospheric transfer modeling results, denotes an influence of marine emissions on cloud formation. Organic nitrogen compounds (free amino acids) were enriched by several orders of magnitude in submicron aerosol particles and in cloud water compared to seawater. However, INP measurements also indicated a significant contribution of other non-marine sources to the local INP concentration, as (biologically active) INPs were mainly present in supermicron aerosol particles that are not suggested to undergo strong enrichment during ocean–atmosphere transfer. In addition, the number of CCN at the supersaturation of 0.30 % was about 2.5 times higher during dust periods compared to marine periods. Lipids, sugar-like compounds, UV-absorbing (UV: ultraviolet) humic-like substances and low-molecular-weight neutral components were important organic compounds in the seawater, and highly surface-active lipids were enriched within the SML. The selective enrichment of specific organic compounds in the SML needs to be studied in further detail and implemented in an OM source function for emission modeling to better understand transfer patterns, the mechanisms of marine OM transformation in the atmosphere and the role of additional sources. In summary, when looking at particulate mass, we see oceanic compounds transferred to the atmospheric aerosol and to the cloud level, while from a perspective of particle number concentrations, sea spray aerosol (i.e., primary marine aerosol) contributions to both CCN and INPs are rather limited